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Writer's pictureGary Carter

6 reasons why the current business outlook may not be as bad as we think


After commissioning my Winter 2023 SME business survey, the results coming in showed more optimism in the business community than the media had been portraying. With the aid of my own survey data and with cues from other data sources, here are my 6 reasons businesses are feeling cheerful right now.


  1. My own SME business report, Winter 2023 portrays opinions and viewpoints of SME owners in the UK. The general view expressed via a survey in January this year is one of cautious optimism that businesses will fare better than official forecasts and media reports

  2. Forecast technical recession has not happened yet. Latest data from the Office of National Statistics showed growth of 0.6% across the first two months of Q4 so barring a disastrous December we should not see two consecutive quarters of GDP decline

  3. Inflation appears to have peaked

  4. Wholesale energy prices are on their way down (although we won’t see the benefit until after summer)

  5. Interest rates are said to be near their peak

  6. The Bank of England via its February Monetary Policy Report has softened its view regarding how negatively they see the outlook, now believing any recession will be shorter and shallower with inflation not peaking as high as initially thought


For a full impartial look at the positive as well as all the negative forces affecting the current business outlook reflecting UK SME owners views and taking cues from the latest economic data, download my SME business survey, here, it’s completely free.


PS: the graphic has been adapted from an infographic in my SME report, the original showing both positive and negative factors affecting business sentiment.


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